To allow the student to develop elementary decision analysis competencies (knowledge, skills and attitudes). Classes will be held mostly in Portuguese unless there is at least one foreign student enrolled and attending who is still struggling with Portuguese listening comprehension.
The course focuses on how to make good decisions in a complex, dynamic, and uncertain world. Everyone makes decisions, but few people think about how they do it. Psychological research shows that in many simple decision situations people make decisions that upon close examination they regard as wrong. Decision analysis is the normative field of decision-making. Decision analysis uses a structured conversation based on actional thought to obtain clarity of action in a wide variety of domains. Throughout the course, one will develop rules of thought that will transform complex decisions into simpler decision situations where the course of action is clear.
1. Introduction 2. Distinctions 3. Possibilities and probabilities 4. Relevance 5.. Value of information and experimentation 6. Tree, relevance and decision diagrams 7. Risk attitude 8. Sensitivity Analysis
Decision Analysis for the professional. Peter Mcnamee and John Celona. Foundations of decision analysis. Ronald A. Howard and Ali E. Abbas. Making hard decision: with Decisions Tools. Robert T. Clemen and Terence Reilly. Decision making under uncertainty: models and choices. Charles A. Holloway. Other textbooks may be used for instructions.